Anthony Joseph
Doctoral Scholar
CIE – University of Delhi
Abstract
Since the ‘The Doctrine of Chances’ in 1718, 1738, and 1756, a gambling manual, no other
theoretical mathematical abstraction has had such an important influence on
psychology and the social sciences. Could this have inadvertently contributed
to the current day confusion - statistical significance often is confused with
significance?
Statistics could easily beguile most into believing
that it has the knack for pulling wisdom out of the stories and little events
of life and even more easily make any inference from the numbers, and
proportions. Yet, how does statistics, while fitting observed distributions to
theoretical curves, deal with subjective probability? Or address the "threshold of dismissal of the idea of chance" which depends on a complex set of factors
specific to each individual, and therefore varies among individuals?
Notably, Sigmund Freud, Jean Piaget, Erik Erikson,
Albert Bandura, Vygotsky and a whole bunch of social scientists had no known
recourse to statistical tools and yet their theories have stood the test of
time; however the current financial meltdown together with its pall of
uncertainly, despite access to sophisticated statistical modelling techniques
has engendered more questions than explanations!
In India where ‘theory building’ in the social and
behavioural sciences is still at its nascent stages and where religious
philosophy and astrology accepts a universe in which every event, no matter how
trivial, as
being caused by the ‘omnipotent’,
often leaves no place for the investigation of random events. A goal of this
paper is to stimulate a critical reading of research to engage in ongoing
inquiry, problem solving, and innovation. With the hope that such activities
will bring about necessary and appropriate changes in readers’ beliefs, ideas,
and instructional strategies surrounding the social and behavioural sciences
education of culturally and linguistically diverse students; dispel myths in
statistics regarding human development, culture, and language; and advance work
toward reflective, social action that views cultural and linguistic diversity
as a resource to be tapped in the education of/for all.
Key words: statistical
significance, numbers, social science, behavioural science, critical reading
